ACUS11 KWNS 051749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051748=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of northeast Texas...Southwest Arkansas and
far southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051748Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Maturing elevated storms may pose a risk for hail through
the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed
intensifying elevated convection northwest of the well-defined
frontal corridor across eastern TX. Recent reports of severe hail in
Navarro County, along with increasing CAPPI/MESH cores these storms
will likely continue to intensify. SPC mesoanalysis shows 500-1000
J/kg of MUCAPE atop surface temperatures in the 50s and 40s F.
Southwesterly mid-level shear of 50-60 kt is supporting of
supercells. With most of the CAPE distributed above the freezing
layer, severe hail with the max potential near 1.75 inches is likely
with the deeper cores.

HRRR guidance and radar trends suggest these storms may persist for
several hours farther northeast into parts of OK and AR. While
buoyancy gradually decreases, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg should remain
sufficient for isolated hail with the deeper supercell structures.
Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW is not expected, but
trends are being monitored.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MAAO2o4yjOzys3eX4WHESoqZW_j7OkjuGKC48ar6X82nWpTsCFiOMSNWgvLW38ccdBLA9Wd9= HXrLasM_-EAXS2dbWY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32469630 33839552 34559502 34549359 34009342 32939418
31939527 31989605 32469630=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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