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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 19:35:08 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 051934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051934=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-052130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

    Areas affected...western Tennessee to far southern Kentucky

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...124...

    Valid 051934Z - 052130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122, 124 continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat is expected to persist
    through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line continues across western
    Tennessee. Measured wind gusts have been mostly in the 35 to 45 knot
    range recently as the apex of the bow weakened somewhat as it moved
    into an airmass featuring low 50s temperatures. The only exception
    was a measured 51 kt gust at KHKA at 1917Z on the northern end of
    the bow. Some enhancement of this bow is possible over the next 1
    to 2 hours as it interacts with a more unstable surface airmass
    along the front across southern Tennessee with temperatures in the
    low 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. In addition, some enhancement
    of the low-level jet (between 1 and 2 km) has been sampled by the
    KOHX VWP. This will further support maintenance of the MCS and its
    associated wind threat, and will also aid in the low-level shear
    favorable for some embedded tornado threat. Expect the apex of this
    bow to continue to orient along the instability gradient, along and
    slightly south of I-40 between Memphis and Nashville, TN.

    ..Bentley.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ivQXGDIETA65BeoxBk_BkKYY-FnnzubroqACcDeXdMKdLuBRR62GcNnwUguvq4OZcEH4FuRS= R-83Zlcu6w15Qf2llE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35328971 35708947 36128941 36798795 37188678 36988598
    36058563 35078624 34868817 34808923 34909022 35328971=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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