ACUS11 KWNS 241053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241053=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-241300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern OK into western AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...

Valid 241053Z - 241300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315
continues.

SUMMARY...A fast moving line of storms will continue shifting
southeast across eastern Oklahoma and possibly western Arkansas the
next few hours. Severe gusts to 70 mph is the main hazard with these
storms, though isolated large hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...A robust line of storms over north-central and
northeast OK will continue shifting southeast at around 50 kt this
morning. This well-organized convection has produced many gusts in
the 65-75 mph range over the past hour. The expectation is that
these storms will continue to shift southeast along the MUCAPE
gradient within a northwesterly flow regime aloft and on the nose of
a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While some weakening is
possible moving into the diurnal minimum, the overall parameter
space will support continued storm organization and severe gusts to
70 mph appear likely for at least another couple of hours across
eastern portions of WW 315.

Another cluster of strong/severe storms is ongoing across southeast
OK. While these storms have weakened compared to 1-2 hours ago,
sporadic large hail and strong gusts may persist in the short term.
Trends will be monitored for possible downstream watch issuance.

..Leitman.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_3hefqz-pfwzyq9dJOTs6YW1NTqc6G4O2GPWiXo9wD3RVyz5AJcIBhVU8HTH9h29_Y2Y8wKJ6= X7AD2jknUBEd1ZUd4w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36999541 36409452 35429405 35379398 34759402 34349430
34069496 34029551 34259616 34619655 36099724 36619685
36939605 36999541=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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