ACUS11 KWNS 241336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241336=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma...the ArkLaTex and western
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241336Z - 241430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The MCS across eastern OK has shown a general downscaling
trend early this morning. However, recent strong surface gusts with
the stronger embedded cores suggests some potential for
re-intensification this morning. A downstream WW is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 1325 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted
several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from eastern OK
into central AR. Within the broader OK MCS, warming cloud tops and a
general downscaling trend have been noted with some of the segments.
However, several stronger embedded cores have maintained their
intensity and could intensify further as they move
east/southeastward towards the ArklaTex this morning. Recent
observed gust to 57 kts and reports of damage in and around KMLC
support this trend. The environment downstream of these cores is
supportive of a continued damaging wind risk with With ~2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear from SPC mesoanalyis. The
current expectation is that these stronger storms will continue east/southeastward along the baroclinic zone with a risk for
damaging gusts.

Additional convective development is also possible this morning
along and ahead of this cluster with weak low-level warm advection
along the buoyancy/thermal gradient across central AR and the lower
MS Valley. While the evolution of these storms is uncertain owing to
weaker buoyancy farther north, they may persist and merge with the
broader cluster over OK, or develop into an additional complex and
spread east/southeast into the lower MS Valley. With sufficient
buoyancy and shear for organization, some damaging wind risk would
likely evolve. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a
downstream weather watch.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-TiFz6yaj_QMY_xNGUnnAF7s25aPyyWIRJx2io8d3VRwpevtsOK2QD-1VAl0eDezJSvzqKyRw= FR5AgsweGULvAASWjw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35629442 34689551 33769578 32879493 32439157 33459061
34739058 35199225 35629442=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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