ACUS11 KWNS 241817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241816=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-241945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...far southern AR...northern LA...central MS and
west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241816Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The ongoing MCS over parts of the ArkLaTex may intensify
and spread eastward. Additional storms may also pose a risk for
damaging winds and hail. A new WW is possible, though timing is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Along the eastern edge of WW316, a linear cluster of
thunderstorms across far southern AR near the LA border has begun to
interact with more unstable air south of a roughly east-west
oriented baroclinic zone. Along and south of the boundary, mid 80s F temperatures and robust surface moisture were contributing to
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As the cold pool interacts with this air
mass, some re-intensification of the ongoing storms is expected.
Additional development has also been noted along a preceding
confluence line across northern LA and along the boundary itself
across MS and AL. While there remains some uncertainty on the
evolution of these individual features, the general environment and
observation trends suggest one or more clusters/lines of storms
should emerge and spread eastward along the boundary this afternoon.
Given the degree of instability and moderate deep-layer flow aloft,
damaging winds appear probable with any deeper cold pools/forward
propagating clusters that develop and maintain themselves. Some
isolated hail may also occur with relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates and large buoyancy. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored, but a weather watch appears possible this afternoon.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_mxYTWFyKAbmJI6DEb5-M-dES4DBcIAKnZdgPjfiFMuvYBTwTys1XXYNHJD0nV15N5JSPSg6X= g5CFsHpqGDZ1F0hawE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 31858782 32838709 33798750 33999048 33959062 33539099
33199352 32219365 31288946 31858782=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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