ACUS11 KWNS 241825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241824=20
COZ000-242030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Colorado Front Range

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241824Z - 242030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Recent satellite trends have shown convective development
over the Rockies/Colorado Front Range as afternoon heating and
boundary layer mixing have destabilized the environment. Potential
exists for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two
this afternoon and evening, with possible watch issuance needed.

DISCUSSION...With initial signs of convective development evident on
visible satellite imagery, the expectations is for storm coverage
and intensity to increase during the afternoon and into the evening.
As storms move from the higher terrain onto the front range and
plains of Colorado, they will enter an unstable environment with
40-50 kts of westerly effective bulk shear, supporting supercell
development. The expectation is that the primary threat will be for
large hail and damaging winds, though forecast profiles and VAD wind
profiles from the KDEN radar site, along with 18Z ACARS sounding
retrievals, indicate there is a non-zero chance for tornado
occurrence. Easterly surface winds with a generally westerly storm
motion result in some modest curvature of the low-level hodograph
and enhancement of environmental streamwise vorticity that could
favor tornado development.

..Halbert/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5r54CbQD7i4masutse33a_Q9694Eh_1x76d2JTQFtInibIVBvRapPt8R2V2Q5UG_bgzXv53VT= wVU-IkMYK_UTZa-K4w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38110348 37480364 37220391 37300438 37570487 38020538
38820563 39620563 40050531 40010469 39810413 39230372
38110348=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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