ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250215=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-250345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...north-central and northeastern
Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 250215Z - 250345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms to pose a threat for large to very large hail
through the evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION...A boundary currently focused across central/western
Oklahoma is expected to be the focus of thunderstorm development
over the next couple of hours. As storms develop and move east and
north of the boundary, they will remain elevated but pose a risk for
large to very large hail, given steep lapse rates and MUCAPE above
700 mb. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to cover
this potential in the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wrxg4KRNiLd_ZJcEI_DsZosV1oumffOHgcOKiLvK83tVfovnPp1kCOeLMZiU_Cf79DlHnNuC= SDjxrPkVVVaLPksslA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35529592 36009665 36099767 36279872 36459912 36769913
37029833 37319793 37479669 37469630 37509573 37529503
37489486 37199470 36649467 36339464 36049466 35499496
35529592=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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