ACUS11 KWNS 250413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250412=20
OKZ000-250545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...

Valid 250412Z - 250545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319 continues.

SUMMARY...Some supercell threat may persist past Midnight CDT.

DISCUSSION...Two small supercells developed this evening across
northwest OK. However, despite the presence of strong to extreme
instability, these cells have struggled to grow and maintain severe
intensity, likely due to lingering warm temperatures aloft and a
lack of stronger large-scale ascent. A strengthening low-level jet
is noted on recent VWPs from KOUN and KFDR, and this may yet allow
for some intensification of the remaining supercell, and/or
development of new storms near/north of the quasi-stationary front.
In the short term, some threat for all severe hazards cannot be
ruled out with the ongoing supercell through and past Midnight CDT,
though increasing MLCINH may limit its longevity. Any new
development may tend to be slightly elevated, but could still pose a
severe threat given the favorable instability and shear across the
region.

..Dean.. 05/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ctzxI5wpsi7onVi1L-gzKuOijdomRKxYCK8x2nK7Wi5cj5MlJXcoUeG2lao4c7TtPd37iFbw= IHA5K0nNE5WAkrKbzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 36019969 36069838 35919778 35749756 35369747 35159804
34969851 34989903 35089967 36019969=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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