ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Areas affected...middle and eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251850Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some diurnal heating ahead of a cluster of storms may
support a gradual increase in the severe risk this afternoon.
Conditions are being monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Along the northern portions of the stalled front across
the TN Valley a remnant linear cluster of thunderstorms has shown
some re-intensification early this afternoon. Visible imagery shows
some diurnal heating has raised surface temperatures to the
mid/upper 70s ahead of the line, partially modifying the air mass
along the baroclinic zone. While buoyancy is not overly large.
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, a fairly robust surface cold pool and 30-40
kt of mid-level flow may allow for additional storm intensification/organization for a few hours this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the primary concern, as indicated by a few recent
reports of damage and gusts to 50+ mph). However, an embedded
tornado or two are is also possible, given backed low-level flow
along the front. The primary uncertainty remains to degree of
destabilization ahead of the line, especially into eastern TN where
surface temperatures and buoyancy are weaker. Regardless, some
severe risk may evolve this afternoon, and a WW is being considered.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HEqiI9jl4ntb9RJwu_mwgULj4FiJekj4onap5alO84R_6sKw_nLKskPnw6wPy9IclJH9iycj= -9Ln3O4IwZKEB-KCUg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34928616 35018797 35458860 36498796 36598790 36018527
35388412 34898467 34928616=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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