1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0973

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 25 20:48:45 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252048=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-252315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0973
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 252048Z - 252315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective Initiation along a frontal zone appears
    increasingly likely between 4-7pm CDT (21-00z). Large hail appears
    to be the primary threat, although the risk for severe gusts will
    increase during the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a gradual clumping of
    cumulus along a front draped from southwest to northeast across the
    TX Panhandle. A patch of cirrus over eastern NM appears associated
    with the leading edge of appreciable large-scale ascent from a
    Desert Southwest upper trough. As continued heating of a
    moist/destabilizing boundary layer occurs this this afternoon,
    expecting additional erosion of convective inhibition along the
    boundary. Modifying the 18z Amarillo raob for lower 80s deg F
    temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints, yields around 2400 J/kg MLCAPE
    and minimal MLCINH (-35 J/kg).=20=20

    Models continue to vary regarding timing/coverage of storm
    development within this mesoscale corridor. However, cloud trends
    and forecaster experience imply at least isolated to widely
    scattered storm development over the next 3 or so hours. Depending
    on timing/coverage of developing storms, a severe thunderstorm watch
    will be considered.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5GT_eNNg_KGauuG0r4xc6o9qvA3LKgmsyqCNYjgSmQJuED4tok_p8JPHIWx8bTikLiwwxlsZH= 63hyV2Dt0SC7RLxgfI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34800261 35440157 36180083 36280014 36019988 35659984
    34400186 34370251 34800261=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)