ACUS11 KWNS 261840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261840=20
TXZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of north-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261840Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may pose some hail risk along I-20 and
into the DFW Metroplex early this afternoon. A more widespread
severe risk is expected farther south later this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, regional radar imagery showed new
thunderstorm development had occurred across the I-20 corridor west
of DFW. These storms are likely rooted above the surface, developing
atop a stable surface air mass in the wake of an early morning MCS.
While some diurnal heating is occurring, it is likely these storms
will remain elevated as the move northeastward atop the old surface
cold pool. MUCAPE parcels between 700 and 800 MB are supporting
1000-1500 J/kg of elevated buoyancy with 35-40 kt of effective shear
sufficient for supercells. While not expected to be overly intense,
the buoyancy/shear profiles and supercell mode are favorable for
severe hail across north-central TX early this afternoon. The lack
of deeper buoyancy, especially with northeastward extent, suggests
the severe threat should remain fairly isolated initially.

A greater severe risk is likely to evolve along and south of I-20
with stronger convection emanating from central TX later this
afternoon and evening.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9P8eeXYjph_keHJxVxNC7_FJHaN29TD3wWPy5WJOQw8EL-zdrqRlq51fhQOF3EMsVtifdms10= ykTyQTg0Iseor9svZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 33199692 32909633 32419610 32259609 31509662 31469667
31399748 31609835 32109914 32529911 32999844 33199692=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)