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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0996

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 26 22:34:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 262232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262232=20
    TXZ000-270030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0996
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Areas affected...south-central TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 331...

    Valid 262232Z - 270030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 331 continues.

    SUMMARY...Significant severe hail/wind and tornadoes will remain
    possible through mid-evening across the eastern Edwards Plateau and
    Hill Country vicinity with an emerging MCS.

    DISCUSSION...Intense supercells have produced at least a couple
    reported tornadoes, extremely large hail in excess of 5 inches, and
    measured severe wind gusts to 73 mph. The latter occurred at the
    Menard WTM site as surface temperatures fell into the upper 50s
    within a strengthening cold pool. An intense leading supercell is
    ongoing over Mason County and will have the best opportunity to
    produce tornadoes in the next hour or so. Additional convection
    appears to be developing immediately eastward, suggestive of the well-advertised upscale growth into an MCS this evening along the
    large-scale convective outflow arcing to Matagorda Bay. This MCS
    should initially remain slow-moving before potentially accelerating
    later this evening. Overall hail magnitudes have likely peaked, but
    any semi-discrete updrafts will remain capable of significant severe
    hail. The significant severe wind threat is likely to increase,
    especially as embedded supercells evolve into small-scale bows.

    ..Grams.. 05/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aWNHSjDODLOTYOP4Ko6dGUvV5Mil5R4r2d1JBpu0TsWSQgaUiUWE0wOdYhbqVPpH7bF3pm4W= lfVl3o692OPRZl1R2M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30869924 30909881 30839823 30759796 30439752 29919769
    29729797 29669832 29699905 29749970 29870021 30110049
    30370054 30580000 30869924=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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