• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1004

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 27 04:22:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 270420
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270420=20
    TXZ000-270545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1120 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Areas affected...south TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

    Valid 270420Z - 270545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Uncertainty exists over the longevity and potential
    evolution of ongoing strong to severe storms in south Texas,
    especially to the south of WW 335 overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores have largely been relegated along
    and north of the southward-sagging outflow boundary associated with
    the extensive MCS arcing across east to south TX. Large buoyancy and
    a 45-50 kt low-level jet per CRP VWP data are positives to
    maintaining a potential severe threat overnight across parts of the
    Brush Country. But the west/east-orientation of the convective
    cluster along with stout MLCIN with southern extent into the Lower
    Rio Grande Valley casts considerable uncertainty on cold pool
    acceleration. It is possible that convection may remain strong to
    locally severe as it ripples south along the sagging large-scale
    outflow.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-15gSx9uyst3aWe5FX2aoYDMoIM7JE03qSznnDG3RRFpnT7wclehZSpKYpzNMriFVToBbsLKH= UeoMVCntVmrGA5arDw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29069855 28579821 28249786 28069758 27729764 27549786
    27669866 27999942 28580008 28989982 29069855=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 27 04:31:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 270420
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270420=20
    TXZ000-270545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1120 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

    Areas affected...south TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

    Valid 270420Z - 270545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Uncertainty exists over the longevity and potential
    evolution of ongoing strong to severe storms in south Texas,
    especially to the south of WW 335 overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores have largely been relegated along
    and north of the southward-sagging outflow boundary associated with
    the extensive MCS arcing across east to south TX. Large buoyancy and
    a 45-50 kt low-level jet per CRP VWP data are positives to
    maintaining a potential severe threat overnight across parts of the
    Brush Country. But the west/east-orientation of the convective
    cluster along with stout MLCIN with southern extent into the Lower
    Rio Grande Valley casts considerable uncertainty on cold pool
    acceleration. It is possible that convection may remain strong to
    locally severe as it ripples south along the sagging large-scale
    outflow.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55wOxvP2mzowajOLOR56DinZ2I2EygF4dw0rBm17PiCyEqnKl7O4TsDPr2am35AvF9Wn0UXW5= QgnfDeMwcTmw5m2o04$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29069855 28579821 28249786 28069758 27729764 27549786
    27669866 27999942 28580008 28989982 29069855=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

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