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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 27 08:35:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 270834
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270834=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-271000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

    Areas affected...southern/central LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270834Z - 271000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts may persist across parts of central
    and southern Louisiana the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...An eastward-progressing line of strong storms is
    tracking along/north of the marine front oriented west to east along
    the LA coast and within the MLCAPE gradient. Vertical shear is
    adequate to maintain storm organization, through does weaken with
    eastward extent. This activity has mostly remained sub-severe over
    the last 1-2 hours, though a 53 kt gust wast noted at KLCH. Storms
    are expected to gradually weaken with eastward extent, though
    isolated strong gusts remain possible.=20

    Some stronger rotation has recently been noted on the KLCH radar
    associated with a couple of mesovortices along the leading edge of
    the line across far southern LA where activity is likely closer to
    being surface-based. Strong gusts may be more likely across this
    area in the short term.=20

    Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited and
    gradually diminish with time and eastward extent.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8pLjehEnNyWjiVc7moV9ME1EBUk12EjxhLFGGMhgoCMbEktUPkSX7hX8s6888fpKnscHMbyq= 3dLfCjdw2zo9xpTNvs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31639322 31549212 31079177 29849130 29289137 29279238
    29549318 29939347 30689364 31209366 31639322=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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