ACUS11 KWNS 271924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271924=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-272130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...portions of Southwest TX...far southeastern New
Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271924Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across
Southwest TX and far southeastern NM with a risk primarily for large
hail and damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...With strong diurnal heating ongoing, isolated
convection has developed over the higher terrain of the Davis
Mountains and and the western Rim of the Rio Grande Valley.
Additional convection is likely to develop this afternoon as
convective temperatures are breached and with continued low-level
upslope flow in the wake of overnight outflow. Continued
destabilization will result in moderate to large buoyancy with
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rate. While
westerly flow aloft will be overly strong, 30-40 kt of effective
shear will be sufficient for supercells.

Supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail given the
favorable storm mode and steep mid-level lapse rates. While
low-level shear is weak, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out
with the stronger supercells. With time, some clustering, and
moderately deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a
risk for damaging outflow gusts. This appears especially likely with
any stronger clusters that can develop and cross the Rio Grande
later this afternoon/evening.

It will likely take several hours for storms to mature and move off
the higher terrain given relatively modest forcing for ascent. While
the general severe risk should continue to increase, there remains
some uncertainty on the timing of any potential watch. Conditions
will continue to be monitored.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-Mz5oCTmTZ0gGNc9_WnQlXlim5sG-GvxNuWU3l0yydDdgo3pY9dCEjbbPJDL0CiM-0j1F5qG= nOytgLM40HDpDf9ZIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29100420 29880445 30930483 32160557 32750550 33030483
33120377 32380253 31550132 31020073 29800039 29420099
29430188 29650248 28860304 29100420=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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