ACUS11 KWNS 272238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272237=20
COZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272237Z - 272330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds with thunderstorms
moving out of the high terrain this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Front
Range this afternoon, with occasional stronger cores evident on
radar. Activity should move out of the high terrain across eastern
Colorado this evening. Forecast soundings are characterized by steep
lapse rates, modest deep layer shear, and sufficient instability to
promote some instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Guidance also
suggests some potential for clustering and attempts at upscale
growth, which would increase wind potential. Trends will be
monitored this evening across this region for watch potential, but
confidence in convective evolution is low at this time.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7yZoqW99LeYmsGDYL9wQYSOTuwDzI6B0gTgjHr1l9uiMwGeB0-usAcYAWZ7sFV93Noc88_mvO= pUQoZ6uPkIHO12Yx9A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39420537 40030553 40270536 40660467 40750406 40340338
39530267 38580207 37450207 37040243 37000375 37410425
39420537=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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