ACUS11 KWNS 280257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280257=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into southwestern
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 280257Z - 280500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW338.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery and reports indicate that storms
southeast of Midland, TX have been producing winds 60-65 mph. Storm
interaction and colliding outflow likely aided in the
intensification of these storms. It remains unclear how much of
threat will extend past watch expiration at 04z. Loss of heating,
weak flow, and increasing MLCIN may limit the longevity of this
activity. A local extension or additional watch issuance may be
needed.

Further west, a line of thunderstorms is moving southeast out of New
Mexico. This line has a history of gusts up to 60 mph and penny size
hail. Though forward progress is slow, the environment ahead of this
activity remains warm and unstable (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg)
which may allow it to continue to remain severe. WW338 may need to
be extended in time should this threat persist through 04z.

..Thornton.. 05/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hUquDG8pjsmjQZUfvqsj2xRhtRfDRqM01QbNxlgxJF3RIBVdOeOIg1hpX2GZyNsnJnaJ4qUd= UvQ3qOMgXOUW3mJJ2k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32760294 33140366 33000430 32410467 31820462 31170352
30910288 30450081 30370028 30469975 30859954 31179961
31729986 32760294=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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