ACUS11 KWNS 280439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280438=20
TXZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Areas affected...Deep South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 280438Z - 280645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind and hail threat should develop across parts
of Deep South Texas as a thunderstorm cluster spreads east-southeast
from Coahuila during the early morning. The short-term threat, while predominantly consisting of isolated severe coverage, should be
sufficient to warrant overnight Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A deep convective cluster is ongoing over northeast
Coahuila. It has recently accelerated eastward to a forward speed of
30 kts and should affect a portion of the Lower Rio Grande Valley in
the next 1-2 hours. Large buoyancy still persists ahead of this
cluster with only weak MLCIN where mid 80s surface temperatures
persist along the valley. Farther east, richer moisture but cooler
temperatures renders some uncertainty on how far east an organized
severe threat should extend. But with east-southeasterly low-level
winds veering to moderate upper-level westerlies, several hours of
severe threat appears probable. There are signals that additional
storms may develop ahead of this cluster, which could result in a
broader MCS in the pre-dawn hours towards the coast.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8BkexzPstEZ3D_f8BNe-ESVWpXUWYrhw66UTWxqAvgSVNM4U7fmj_Vsayu4Cm0PJozJOKQpLw= dQQFDzasnoiX7wMAuU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 28640041 28609973 28479871 28299811 27869748 27319742
26949783 26799816 26859881 27129940 27609973 28640041=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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