ACUS11 KWNS 281808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281807=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-281930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281807Z - 281930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible from thunderstorms
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to strong instability has developed across
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi where temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. The environment is favorable for strong downdrafts capable
of some wind damage with DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg across much of
the region. This is already apparent from the KHDC radar where early
storms across St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes have
already produced prolific outflow. If enough storms can form to
generate a stronger northward moving cold pool, a more organized
damaging wind threat could materialize and necessitate a watch
across parts of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Z-6VCBVX9lJuHlr6rAn_rkdnCMvdBZeR0zArEU3MU8TyAOkPeN28LLjD30f66-w3DtR_r2CI= tfcvT-irlkjRCJutTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29918853 29518972 29479152 30409249 31899212 32199043
32268926 32188874 31108847 29918853=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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