ACUS11 KWNS 290005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290004=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...northwest OK and the northeast TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

Valid 290004Z - 290130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected downstream of an
accelerating cluster from the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. Severe
gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado are all possible.

DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly-stationary supercell has been
anchored over Beaver County, OK. It is in the process of being
merged with an upstream cluster. Primary severe threat through
mid-evening is expected downstream of this merging complex, aided by
a ribbon of higher theta-e coinciding with a strengthening low-level
jet, already sampled by area VWP data. Severe wind-driven large hail
appears increasingly likely into northwest OK as this leading
cluster moves east-southeast. A brief tornado is possible given
enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, but may be curtailed by the outflow-dominated cluster.

..Grams/Hart.. 05/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7eTIZEoAWHd_nHMgR_muvp3T0EnwdMKTxA4OEUZrdKju3MLlyUvUmQ1_6jEu-oaKxdiOLw6eu= SYFGHY0fVYVqEXffAE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37080031 37029941 36659835 36129790 35759843 35799924
35889995 36090063 36380085 36700099 37080031=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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