ACUS11 KWNS 291647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291647=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-291815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 291647Z - 291815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase over the next few
hours, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and some severe hail.
Watch issuance is expected by early to mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a broad area of stratiform rain
with a few more intense cells embedded, advancing northeastward
across portions of central Georgia. Ahead of this activity, morning
clearing has allowed for rapid destabilization, yielding 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina.
The lack of appreciable CIN is leading to a steady increase in new
storm development across the region, in addition to the
aforementioned ongoing activity. Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt
should promote a few loosely organized clusters with time, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Severe hail is also
possible, particularly with any isolated cells early on. Given the
widespread storm coverage anticipated and severe storm potential, a
watch will likely be needed by early to mid afternoon.

..Karstens/Smith.. 05/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56ZxCVd-xg_fUA9vi1-yrQtQ96NB8Ya6SS7DBum9TuWd1p5jUlyZIj1b47ysNFh9F9kdfN1Dc= fqREVRb_3FqsbtCoVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30608147 30748295 31328362 33068248 33808089 33447906
32617955 31538108 30608147=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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