ACUS11 KWNS 291923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291922=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-292045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and portions of Far West
Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291922Z - 292045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
this afternoon across southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed across the higher terrain
in southeast New Mexico with additional convection forming on the
higher terrain in Far West Texas. Moisture/instability is relatively
sparse across southeast New Mexico which may limit storm intensity
as it moves off of the terrain. However, as storms move farther east
later this afternoon, where upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are
present with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, greater storm intensity is
anticipated. A watch is not expected with storms in the near term,
but will likely be needed across far southeast New Mexico later this
afternoon as they intensify.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6KQjC09uO8ocyq6irgANLWmp7I_yuAcN6opz5mJiamVyZMKgmPL6Hv2tTUsWAsjwyEtoD7CPz= hVclfOgM6e9xOsCS4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32180565 33100555 33700546 34050474 34090342 33760293
32290296 31080277 30420337 30480426 30830491 31490545
32180565=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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