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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 29 23:43:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 292343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292342=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-300115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1039
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0642 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

    Areas affected...Southern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

    Valid 292342Z - 300115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A reservoir of strong instability currently resides
    across west central TX where upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE exists.
    Over the last few hours, scattered convection has gradually
    increased in areal coverage within convergent low-level
    northeasterly flow, over southeast NM into portions of the TX South
    Plains, along and just behind a pronounced cold front. This activity
    appears to be partly supported by a weak mid-level short-wave trough
    that will track east-southeast later this evening. While low-level
    response is not particularly strong ahead of this feature, ongoing
    convection should propagate east into the aforementioned
    high-instability air mass. Current thinking is robust thunderstorms
    may spread just east of ww0346, and an eastward extension appears
    warranted across SJT CWA. Very large hail has been noted with a
    supercell that is digging southeast across Dawson County TX, and
    this appears to be the primary threat into the mid-evening hours.

    ..Darrow.. 05/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TItXibPzyozVtFHeyU4W5mCinPQ_Tut8UlXGlcf2lN06N6JI9aJBYILn62VKidFUscI_mE6v= DDNvHlpbSEJpBE1Ans$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33710450 33540005 30940006 31110450 33710450=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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