ACUS11 KWNS 300810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300810=20
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-301015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee and eastern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 300810Z - 301015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
early this morning across portions of southern Kentucky, Middle
Tennessee, and eastern Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop within a zone of
modest instability across southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee
ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough. Temperatures are
only in the mid 60s to near 70, but cooling mid-level temperatures
(-11C at 00Z from BNA forecast to cool to -13.6C by 12Z) will result
in weak to moderate instability through the early morning hours.
Strengthening tropospheric flow ahead of this trough will provide
ample shear for storm organization including potential for some
supercells. The VWP at KHPX shows greater than 40 knots of flow now
below 1km which will enhance the potential for damaging wind gusts
at the surface with stronger storms.=20

The SPC mesoanalysis shows an uncapped airmass across Tennessee and
southern Kentucky. Therefore, if any supercells can develop along
the front where SRH is maximized (~300 m2/s2 0-0.5km SRH from KHPX
VWP), a local tornado threat could be realized. However, weak
low-level lapse rates will also be a limiting factor to the tornado
threat.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected in the near term.
However, given the strength of the compact mid-level shortwave
trough and ascent associated with it, it is possible the severe
weather threat could be more widespread/intense than anticipated.
While this is not the most likely solution, trends will be monitored
for this potential through the morning.

..Bentley/Bunting.. 05/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cFS6ZgUvNT7sPaeGXvlapWBLbyBL3RRWm0EG8fOgkkDYjPI1zXOEgLo__AMmh5yka-HtrWOo= COnOyGrxOcFmnAdBTk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36638825 37128765 37278498 37168340 36318314 35358435
35088562 35128691 35198744 35468801 36638825=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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