ACUS11 KWNS 301549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301548=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-301745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NC...western/central SC...northern/central GA...and far east-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301548Z - 301745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in intensity and coverage as they
spread eastward through this afternoon. The main concern will be
swaths of damaging winds. One or more watches will be issued for the
area.

DISCUSSION...A band of ENE/WSW-oriented convection is spreading
eastward across the southern Appalachians this morning -- ahead of
an eastward-moving cold front. Over the next several hours,
convection will continue spreading eastward across the
western/central Carolinas and northern/central GA -- in tandem with
the cold front and strong midlevel height falls preceding a
large-scale trough. Ample diurnal heating of a moist pre-convective
boundary layer (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will contribute to
upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which combined with 40-50 kt of
effective shear (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings), will favor storm intensification with eastward extent. Largely gust-front-parallel
deep-layer shear and the strengthening deep-layer ascent should
promote upscale-growing clusters capable of producing swaths of
damaging winds (upwards of 70 mph). One or more watches will be
issued for the area.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ljCagCae-IqiJtiFC8D5vxJNTb-V8F2sbfJrhOAnu1tSWI7G0AH-6Pw9wYvDMV9hnT93bOnL= z-bzzFxXZQpjBbRfuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 35388207 35828154 35978093 35938019 35597953 35167929
34327960 33698024 33078143 32448271 32248374 32048482
32328537 32898561 33558541 33938476 35388207=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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