ACUS11 KWNS 301949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301949=20 NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-302145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA...MD...DE...northeastern
NC...and far southeastern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301949Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will
increase in the 22Z-00Z time frame. A watch will likely be issued
for parts of the area within an hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface low over
northern WV, with a quasi-warm front extending eastward across MD
into southern NJ. Along/south of the front, diurnal heating within
cloud breaks and lower/middle 60s dewpoints are contributing to
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms spread/develop eastward into the destabilizing air mass, 40-50 kt of effective shear should favor
gradual intensification/organization into semi-discrete clusters and supercells. Enhanced clockwise hodograph curvature (around 150 m2/s2
effective SRH) ahead of the east-northeastward-moving surface low
will support the potential for a few tornadoes (along with locally
damaging wind gusts) with the more organized supercells that evolve.
A watch is likely for parts of the area within an hour or two.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Tcxy19mj6Q9FKgtR9SYznrgM7nrvqzCjEV323cf4wdy8DVl54fIEC0SmEDDKu8f88j2Wn_0P= OfQ1RUZAdArZiNSRuY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37337853 38497825 39377792 39847698 39917641 39747579
39387537 38757517 37267557 36217624 35857708 35907796
36167848 37337853=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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