ACUS11 KWNS 310038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310037=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-310230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania...central/northern Delaware...southern/central New
Jersey

Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

Valid 310037Z - 310230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will
persist near the warm front as the surface low tracks northeastward.

DISCUSSION...Storms that had shown organization/low-level rotation
near the DC/Baltimore region have shown a slight downward trend in
organization during the last hour. This is likely due in part to
scattered storms/precipitation occurring and impacting inflow
quality. Even so, KDOX/KBWI/KPHL VAD data still show sufficient
low-level hodographs for a continued tornado threat this evening.
The primary zone for this activity will stay near the warm front and
with the surface low tracking northeastward. Low-level winds in
Delaware and southern New Jersey have already shown a backing trend
as the low approaches. As has been the case throughout today,
low/mid-level lapse rates have been poor and will remain so this
evening (evident from the 00Z observed WAL sounding). The moist
airmass, strong mid-level ascent, and enough low-level theta-e
advection to offset diurnal cooling should allow for damaging wind
and tornado risk over the next few hours. This will especially be
the case where temperatures can remain in the low 70s F with mid 60s
F dewpoints.

..Wendt.. 05/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Nf_aFY94o_zuiX03OMHIsHsiKaqQ0gkXwH0x7deEJ2of6g8saj5rgUSTnwal8ZrsF1vly2IM= jWo5y_dXarAgB9LGpE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38147626 38217654 38387657 38737660 38917668 39097674
39347706 39457763 39597762 39777714 40177595 40287534
40347489 40167458 39727453 38967539 38147626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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