ACUS11 KWNS 182149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148=20 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northern
Mississippi...western Tennessee...western Kentucky...and southern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182148Z - 182345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible as convection
along a strong cold front pushes east across the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley and lower Ohio River Valley. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection along a strong cold front has started to
show a gradual uptick in intensity across eastern AR into MS/TN per
recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends. This comes as the cold
front begins to impinge on a narrow plume of returning moisture into
the MS Valley characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s and low
60s. Latest RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE has increased to around
500 J/kg as far north as the I-40 corridor in northeast AR/western
TN, which should support further intensification over the next few
hours. While thunderstorm intensity will generally be modulated by
the meager buoyancy/poor lapse rates, a very strong low-level
kinematic environment (40-50 knot winds are noted in regional VWPs
within the 0-1 km layer) will support the potential for damaging
gusts.=20

One 50 knot gust was recently observed at KHKA in far northeast AR,
but velocity imagery from KPAH and KNQA shows only embedded swaths
of stronger winds within the line. This suggests that the wind
threat should remain fairly localized to narrow corridors. While the
potential for damaging winds will be greatest across AR/MS/TN within
the axis of appreciable mixed-layer buoyancy, sporadic damaging
winds are possible with northward extent into western KY and
southern IN. Given the limited thermodynamic environment, the
overall intensity of the developing QLCS should remain sufficiently
low to preclude watch issuance.

Additionally, weak convective cells within a pre-frontal trough
across central/north-central MS are being monitored. These cells are
developing within the axis of MLCAPE and where low-level SRH is
fairly strong (approximately 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). While confidence
is low in whether these cells will intensify due to weaker forcing
for ascent and the meager thermodynamic environment, a wind/tornado
threat could materialize if sufficient intensification can take
place.

..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HYa-fwGIxcZBOdISXNW-tEFMOAnW34AFKJYI775Z7FB2SqDvaOfDaFiq5vIlEnNa5z5PCrEt= 4SpfBp4Bs5F9n194DA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...
LZK...

LAT...LON 33688883 33048927 32938967 32969009 33039039 33489141
33779182 33959198 34129205 35399048 37058912 38668799
39198774 39418737 39368654 39268600 39028585 38628589
38118594 37488620 37028653 33688883=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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