ACUS11 KWNS 182236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182236=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle
TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182236Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two
appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should
spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through
mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has
increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal
confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north
to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and
behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE
from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening.
Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells
developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic
supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens
later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL.

..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zD0XSz6DNpPcP9gWX_itvYHkalorK9roN8zAh4qQSDpjIsaWL7Mf-vrlQbawfNrSSbh2Yh3V= Y0We8x-QPos9GeVR_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907
32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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