ACUS11 KWNS 190055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190054=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Deep South

Concerning...Tornado Watch 642...

Valid 190054Z - 190230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues.

SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for
at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms
consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across
east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is
still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL
area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its
proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN
sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX
soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts.
But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew
points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther
north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection
relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a
QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts
capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as
surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of
central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist.

..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qalG_dv8LlPnH__XnZrHl2Yz7GxtD7n-Ks8aYB2Las0rDLOa1KNpW7_935Wg_YUaPkJeMT5x= DfP9_u_r-amWtWozbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708
35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589
33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830
32538919=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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