ACUS11 KWNS 272037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272036=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky...and northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

Valid 272036Z - 272200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
continues.

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have produced a couple damaging gusts
across portions of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, and northern Tennessee. Additional redevelopment is
possible to the west.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is tracking eastward across portions of the
mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, and a compact but relatively
intense mid-level jet streak of 50+ kts is being sampled by the KPAH
and KHPX VWPs. This is contributing to relatively strong bulk shear
of 30-40 kts across the region, enough for occasional mini-supercell
structures to appear on WSR-88Ds. Given the relatively strong
mid-level flow a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may
continue to occur with this activity.

Additional activity may develop across portions of southern Missouri
in association with another MCV and move into the western portions
of Watch 403 later this afternoon and evening. Latest HRRR and RRFS
runs are split on whether this actually occurs, and visible
satellite in the area shows widespread cloud cover with cumulus
development not looking particularly imminent. However, should
additional development occur, the environment will continue to be
favorable for additional damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two.

..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4VenNzvlfopbr2hC70rjUs6bK1uBtp1BAtDFIN01ZBQM8iNkyRG9TVx4P2rU6An9HXalV9144= XG5uJ5-VH_Nci_rOUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 38218917 38508797 38258672 37848598 37268529 36448523
36018641 36158779 36408921 36879006 37609020 38028967
38218917=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)